March Madness and the DJIA – Winners & Losers | Heritage Financial Planning, LLC

Relying Solely on Past Performance to Predict the Future Is a Risky Strategy

At Heritage Financial Planning, we understand that navigating the stock market can feel like a game of chance, especially when looking at the ups and downs of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). But what does the DJIA really tell us, and can past performance reliably predict future winners? Let’s break it down.

A Brief History of the DJIA

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) serves as a key indicator of overall market health, tracking the stock performance of 30 large U.S. companies. Established in 1896 by Charles Dow, it has evolved over time, adapting to shifts in the economy.

Originally comprising 12 companies, including American Cotton Oil Company and U.S. Leather Company, the DJIA expanded to 20 stocks in 1920 and then 30 stocks in 1929, where it remains today. Periodic changes in its composition reflect the evolving economy—most recently, in November 2024, Nvidia replaced Intel, signaling the growing importance of artificial intelligence and semiconductor technology.

Key DJIA Milestones

Over the years, the Dow has hit significant benchmarks:

1,000 points – Late 1972
10,000 points – March 1999
17,000 points – July 2014
25,000 points – January 2018
32,953 points – March 15, 2021
42,392.27 points – January 2, 2025

These milestones serve as a historical guide, but they don’t dictate future success.

2024 Performance: Winners and Losers

The DJIA rose 13% in 2024, but its gains lagged behind the S&P 500’s 23% surge. Here’s a look at the year’s top performers and biggest underperformers:

Top 5 Performers:

Nvidia (NVDA) – +171%: AI-driven semiconductor demand propelled Nvidia to new heights.
Walmart (WMT) – +72%: A strong e-commerce strategy and customer loyalty fueled growth.
Amazon (AMZN) – +44%: Amazon Web Services and AI initiatives boosted stock value.
Goldman Sachs (GS) – +48%: Asset management expansion drove gains.
American Express (AXP) – +59%: High-spending consumers fueled profitability.

Bottom 5 Performers:

Boeing (BA) – -32%: Production issues, supply chain struggles, and worker strikes weighed heavily.
Intel (INTC) – -60%: Struggled to keep pace in the rapidly growing AI chip market.
Nike (NKE) – -28%: Leadership missteps and market share losses took a toll.
Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA) – -63%: Retail business challenges led to an earnings miss.
Dow Inc. (DOW) – -27%: Dropped from the DJIA in favor of Sherwin-Williams.

This stark contrast highlights the unpredictable nature of the market.

Can You Predict the Next Winner?

Would you have guessed that Nvidia would surge over 170% while Boeing dropped more than 30%? Market trends shift rapidly—just a few years ago, Boeing was the top-performing stock in the Dow, gaining 89% in 2018!

At Heritage Financial Planning, we know that every major company has ups and downs. Betting on past performance to predict future winners is a risky strategy. The truth? No one can consistently time the market—which is why a strategic, diversified approach is key.

Investing with Confidence – The HFP S.T.A.R. Strategy

At Heritage Financial Planning, we take the guesswork out of investing with our proprietary HFP S.T.A.R. Strategy.

By focusing on long-term financial success instead of short-term market swings, we help our clients invest with confidence—no matter what the market does next.

Ready to take control of your financial future? Contact Heritage Financial Planning today to schedule an appointment with our expert team. Let’s build a strategy that works for you!