The Philadelphia Eagles vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Should Stock Market Investors Hope for a Kansas City Chiefs Win in Super Bowl LIX?

Does the outcome of the Super Bowl really have any impact on the stock market? Should investors consider adjusting their portfolios based on which team lifts the Lombardi Trophy? As we gear up for Super Bowl LIX (or Super Bowl 59, for those who skipped Latin), let’s explore this intriguing question and examine whether history supports any correlation between football’s biggest night and Wall Street’s movements.

A Brief History of the Super Bowl

The Super Bowl, an annual championship game, was established in 1967 as a contest between the winners of the National Football League (NFL) and the American Football League (AFL). The inaugural game saw the Green Bay Packers, already a dominant NFL force, defeat the Kansas City Chiefs. Three years later, in 1970, the two leagues merged, forming the modern NFC (National Football Conference) and AFC (American Football Conference). As part of this transition, several franchises, including the Pittsburgh Steelers, Cleveland Browns (now the Baltimore Ravens), and Baltimore Colts (now the Indianapolis Colts), shifted to the AFC.

Over the past 58 Super Bowls, the NFC and AFC are evenly matched, each winning 29 times. Historically, original NFL teams—now predominantly part of the NFC—have won 39 times, while former AFL teams—now in the AFC—have claimed 19 victories.

Most Successful Super Bowl Teams

Several franchises have established themselves as powerhouses in Super Bowl history:

6 Wins: Pittsburgh Steelers, New England Patriots
5 Wins: San Francisco 49ers, Dallas Cowboys
4 Wins: Green Bay Packers, New York Giants, Kansas City Chiefs

Notably, except for the Patriots and Chiefs, all of these franchises originated in the NFL.

The Super Bowl Indicator: Fact or Fiction?

An unusual pattern, known as the Super Bowl Indicator, suggests that the stock market performs differently depending on which conference wins. Historically, years when an NFC team (or an original NFL team) wins have correlated with stock market gains, whereas years when an AFC team (or an original AFL team) wins have seen more declines.

But does this hold true today? Let’s examine recent data:

2023 & 2024: The Kansas City Chiefs won back-to-back titles, yet the stock market climbed.
2022: The Los Angeles Rams (NFC) won, but the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) fell over 8%.
2021: The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (NFC) won, and the DJIA rose over 18%.
2020: The Kansas City Chiefs (AFC) won, yet the DJIA gained over 7%.
2019: The New England Patriots (AFC) won, and the DJIA surged over 25%.

Clearly, the Super Bowl Indicator has been unreliable in recent years. Over the past 15 Super Bowls, the correlation has been correct less than 40% of the time—the same odds as flipping a coin.

How the Super Bowl Indicator Originated

The theory was first proposed in 1978 by Leonard Koppett, a New York Times sportswriter, who observed that in 10 of the first 11 Super Bowls, the game’s outcome appeared to predict the stock market’s direction. His early data suggested:

If an old AFL team won, the market declined.
If an old NFL team won, the market rose.

Over time, this pattern seemed to hold up, with the DJIA following the indicator’s prediction 72% of the time (42 out of 58 years). However, when using the S&P 500—a broader measure of the market—the correlation dropped to 60%.

Which Teams Have the Strongest Market Influence?

While the overall pattern has weakened in recent decades, certain teams appear to have a stronger historical connection to the market’s performance:

NFC Teams with Positive Market Trends:

Pittsburgh Steelers (6 wins) – The DJIA rose after every championship.
San Francisco 49ers (5 wins) – The DJIA rose in 4 out of 5 years.
Dallas Cowboys (5 wins) – The DJIA rose in 4 out of 5 years.
Green Bay Packers (4 wins) – The DJIA rose after each victory.
New York Giants (4 wins) – The DJIA rose in 3 out of 4 years.
Washington Commanders (3 wins) – The DJIA rose after each win.

AFC Teams with Mixed Results:

New England Patriots (6 wins) – The DJIA fell in 3 of 6 years.
Oakland/Los Angeles Raiders (3 wins) – The DJIA fell after each victory.
Miami Dolphins (2 wins) – Even in their perfect season, the DJIA declined.

The Kansas City Chiefs Exception:

One notable AFC exception is the Kansas City Chiefs. In each of their four Super Bowl wins (1970, 2020, 2023, and 2024), the DJIA has risen.

The Logical Explanation

The simplest explanation is that the stock market generally trends upward. In 42 of the past 58 years, the market has posted gains, regardless of which conference won the Super Bowl. Since NFC and AFC teams have won an equal number of championships, the correlation between stock performance and the Super Bowl winner appears to be purely coincidental.

So, with the Chiefs entering Super Bowl LIX as a slight 1.5-point favorite over the Eagles, does that mean another market rally is on the way? If history holds, the stock market has risen each time Kansas City has won.

Are You Secretly Hoping for a Chiefs Three-Peat?

While the Super Bowl Indicator is entertaining, there’s no actual causation between football victories and stock market movements.

The Chiefs, Eagles, Steelers, Cowboys, 49ers, and Patriots have no real influence on the DJIA (obvious, right?). So, whether you love Kansas City’s offensive firepower or Philadelphia’s defensive dominance, don’t expect their performance on the field to dictate Wall Street’s direction.

The Bottom Line: What Should Investors Do?

Super Bowl trends may make for fun financial folklore, but successful investing is based on strategy, not superstition. Instead of relying on game outcomes, investors should focus on:

Diversification: Ensure your portfolio is balanced across sectors and asset classes.
Long-Term Growth: Historical data shows the market rises over time despite short-term fluctuations.
Economic Indicators: Pay attention to interest rates, inflation, and corporate earnings.

If you want to develop a data-driven investment strategy, Heritage Financial Planning is here to help. Our HFP S.T.A.R. Strategy is designed to navigate market trends and build a long-term financial plan tailored to your goals.

Schedule a consultation today to discuss your portfolio and ensure your investments are on the right track – no Super Bowl predictions required!

Click here to learn more about our HFP STAR Strategy process.